The “But Look at All We’ve Done” Dance Will Not Win Against Trump in 2024
The role of listening, empathizing and reflecting in winning the Presidency
There are times when humans only act emotionally. There are times when people act with some emotion and some reason. There are no times when people only act rationally.
This is a truism of advertising and entire industries are built on appealing to emotions - happiness, sadness, disgust, fear, surprise, and anger. Appealing to these gets you to buy the more expensive, branded version of a thing (drug, sweatshirt, car) when there is a generic version with the exact same ingredients that is cheaper and as, or maybe even more, effective. It makes you listen to your favorite Beyonce and Taylor Swift songs on repeat til you’re a top 3% global fan. It also gets politicians that create an emotional connection with people elected, or not.
As a former advertising techie turned Democratic candidate for United States Senate from California, I have spent two years deeply studying and a lifetime observing Democratic political strategy, messaging and execution.
I have come to the following conclusion: we need a new dance, better timed for the moment we are in and the moments to come. A dance that moves the audience to feel deeply engaged and excited to participate. The Roe v Wade roll-back was horrible for humans and yet, strangely, an unintended boon to the Democrats in election cycles that have followed it. That issue will not bring people out in the same way in 2024 because too much water has run under the dams of people’s memories to propel that same momentum into the ballot box. Also, Gaza has shaken a core base of that engaged audience.
To win in 2024, Biden needs to rally his campaign team, along with a big tent of Democratic, Independent, and non-Maga Republicans, to rock these moves quickly.
He must:
#1: Authentically acknowledge how truly terrible most people feel (this is a fantastic interview with a Veteran I met in Sacramento on this topic) and
#2: Provide inspiration and clarity on when and how Democrats will help people feel better
#3: Acknowledge where mistakes have been made, take responsibility for those mistakes, and share learnings for how they’ll do better.
Done well, this will rally Democrats and independents and moderate Republicans to come out for Biden. Why? Because it’s real. And it’s what we’re yearning for.
This also sounds easy, doesn’t it? It’s not.
One-in-four U.S. parents say there have been times in the past year when they could not afford the food their family needed or to pay their rent or mortgage. A similar share (24%) say they have struggled to pay for health care for their loved ones, and 20% of those who needed child care say they haven’t always had enough money to pay for it, according to a recent Pew Research Center survey. These numbers are all worse for People of Color.
Trump never rattles off numbers like this. He just acknowledges people feel terrible and shares a hate-filled plan that, like it or despise it, is clear and gives people assurance that he gets them.
“I get it and I see you,” he says. That’s what people hear and feel.
In contrast, Democratic politicians, especially those who have been in elected positions for a LONG TIME, often try to defend their scorecard (the Inflation Reduction Act, the CHIPS and Science Act) and try to tell people why they shouldn’t feel terrible because “look, we’re doing such great work” or “Republicans and corporations are to blame for your misery, let’s focus on them.”
That approach comes across as out of touch and condescending to anyone who is struggling with food, housing, or overall insecurity - and that’s 25% of all Americans, 33% of households with children, 50% of Black and Brown households with kids. We are tired of hearing that our insecurity isn’t that bad or why it may still be bad, but it’s the other guy’s fault.
Democrats need to think about the balance of rational and emotional, but focus more on the emotional.
This does not mean entering a reality TV food fight with Trump or MAGA Republicans on their terms.
It does mean jettisoning the open shock that Trump is going to be the Republican nominee, and acknowledging that he’s able to do that because - despite all the amazing things Biden and his team has done - those things are still, largely, not being felt in the intimate setting of people’s homes in a peace of mind that sounds like, “ah, I feel like I can take care of the basics and things are going to be OK.”
It does mean acknowledging that Biden’s seemingly unwavering support for Israel’s aggressive military strategy, despite over 20,000 Palestinian lives lost (50% plus of whom are women and children) has moved many core Democrats to question or outright rally against support for Biden.
It means actively meeting citizens where they are and connecting with people on their terms. And playing back a plan, in words folks understand, about how Democrats’ plan going forward will make things better.
After my two years of studying this system as a candidate – and 25 years of leading people in multiple business settings, I have a wish.
I wish that I could wave a wand and try to reorient the Biden team or any one of the people running for the race I just stepped out of. And that reorientation would consist of offering them a new two-step dance that would be energetically, passionately, and effectively choreographed to ensure Americans genuinely believe Democrats get two things:
#1: We’re failing all of you, except the super wealthy - at your kitchen table. I want the Biden team and Democratic House and Senate candidates out in communities, at people’s tables. Listening. Actively listening. I want them to hear and broadcast the stories I heard from thousands of people, including people making up to $150,000 a year who are unsure if they can live where they live because of an affordability crisis. People like the hair dresser in DC who lost her college-bound son to random gun violence who will never be the same. People like the Mexican immigrant in New York who has been contributing to this country for years as a hard and loyal worker, ESL volunteer and tax payer, but still cannot find a path to citizenship. People like the Palestinian engineer who has been a Democratic party stalwart and now feels unsure of if she can even stay in this country, let alone support Biden.
I want to see Biden, Harris, and the leaders of the Cabinet and Congress out there, energetically and urgently, reflecting back on social media, in TV appearances, these stories. I don’t want there to be room for a ribald and raucous headline from Trump because Biden’s team is all over this country with human stories that are too compelling not to talk about. And I want these leaders to reflect back what they hear with authentic empathy that is not stage-crafted and rehearsed:
“You sit down at night feeling uneasy. You worry about survival because of the climate. You worry about safety because of guns, our standing in world politics, housing/homelessness, and rising costs of care. You are frustrated because education does not seem like a path to career and financial security any longer. That really sucks. And it’s not ok.”
#2: We are focused on one mission: THRIVE TOGETHER - we’ll grow the economy by giving you more security at your kitchen tables. You will feel this and I want you to hold us accountable for every American being confident in saying the following things by 2030. Each area of focus: survival of our planet, safety and security of our people has a set of metrics we’ll track and share openly about.
In the coming weeks I am going to lay out, piece by piece, what I believe will solve for some -- if not all -- of this emotional turmoil and pain in our electorate. I'll give you a hint -- it starts with climate, and ends with financial security and high quality education and jobs are a key ingredient.
But next week, stay tuned for a post about what Politico calls, “Silicon Valley’s idiosyncratic political futurism” that has been developing for a long time. This is manifesting in mostly male, white billionaires spreading an ideology of libertarianism meets supremacy where they feel that they got where they got on their own steam and don't want to be hemmed in by regulators, journalists, think tankers (all of whom are poorer than they are and, in their minds, less smart). I’ll comment on this because it is dangerous for democracy given how much money drives politics and how much wealth is concentrated in these folks who are increasingly separated from the world in private spaces.
See you next Thursday to continue the conversation. And if you like what you’re reading, please share with your friends.